The contribution of renewables to the climate fight

Solar and wind power continue to drive renewable growth to new record levels, but global efforts to triple installed capacity by 2030 still appear too slow. This inertia is also reflected in the delivery of new Nationally Determined Contributions.

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, the UN Climate Change Convention, marked a historic moment for the global energy transition. For the first time, nearly 200 countries committed to major collective energy pledges to keep the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C within reach. Governments put in writing the target of tripling installed renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements, accelerating “a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.”

Today, almost two years later, much progress has been made but it is still far from sufficient.

Overall, 2024 was a golden year for renewables. Globally, 740 GW of capacity was installed, the largest annual increase ever achieved and, at the same time, a crucial contribution to the climate fight. In the same year, however, global energy demand rose sharply due to record heatwaves, new economic stimulus measures, and a strong rebound in residential and services consumption. These trends in turn pushed total energy-related CO2 emissions up by 0.8%, reaching an all-time high of 37.8 Gt of CO2. The outcome, the International Energy Agency stressed, could have been much worse without the contribution of clean energy to meeting demand. Leading clean technologies today prevent around 2.6 Gt of emissions each year from entering the atmosphere, equal to 7% of global energy-related CO2 emissions.

The gap to close, however, remains wide, and every delay makes the future target harder to achieve. To be clear, the goal agreed at COP 28 in Dubai calls for global installed renewable capacity of 11,174 GW. With 2024’s additions, 6,564 GW are still missing. From now until the end of this decade, more than 1,094 GW of new renewable capacity will need to be brought online every year.
 Granted, this is an achievable target, made possible by extremely competitive costs, but politically there is still significant resistance.

Starting last year, many major economies rolled back or delayed climate and sustainable energy measures. The most striking example? On January 20, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Climate Agreement.

What is more, only a handful of countries met the February 2025 deadline set by the United Nations to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) for the 2025–2035 period. NDCs form the basis for the actions each government will take to limit global warming, including in the energy sector. In the previous round of contributions, submitted by 194 states, only 14 included explicit targets for renewable capacity in 2030. These amounted to a total of 1,300 GW, barely 12% of the global tripling pledge, which requires at least 11,174 GW by that date. Even when adding the “renewable” measures cited in national plans, the total did not exceed 7,238 GW by the end of the decade.

Ambition was expected to rise with the new NDC 3.0. Yet only 13 countries met the submission deadline, and another 9 have joined in recent months. That is just over 11% of the total. Not only that, analysis of the 22 NDC 3.0 submitted reveals that only 16 countries increased their renewable commitments. In the other cases, efforts remained unchanged or even weakened. The result? The overall improvement is minimal: just 2% more, for a total of 7,380 GW.

This reflects a broader trend of declining ambition, driven by shifting political dynamics and mounting economic pressure, which cannot be ignored.

How to avoid missing the target? Clearly, stronger national commitments, followed by rapid implementation, can help make the global goal of tripling clean energy by 2030 attainable. Clear and ambitious national targets are essential to plan system flexibility, uphold climate pledges, and steer investment toward new renewable capacity. According to IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency, such investments will need to triple, rising from $570 billion in 2023 to $1.5 trillion annually between 2024 and 2030.

Equally crucial will be streamlining permitting procedures, modernizing and expanding grid infrastructure and storage systems, and increasingly relying on demand management and other supply-side flexibility options.

Article realized in collaboration with Rinnovabili