KEY ENERGY SUMMIT

The evolution of the geopolitical landscape and the increasingly complex economic situation are posing new challenges to climate-energy policies aimed at decarbonization, calling into question their economic and social sustainability.
In this context, the Althesys study for KEY aims to understand how to combine the energy transition with the competitiveness of European and Italian companies. The analysis therefore combines geopolitical and policy aspects of Europe and the main global blocs, with the evolution of technologies, their costs, and the institutional and industrial structures of various nations.
The study jointly considers "macro" and global issues with the specific economic-financial and industrial reality of some countries, Italy first and foremost, considering the triad of electricity generation-storage-grids in light of decarbonization objectives from a combined perspective of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. This, of course, is in the face of evolving energy demand and therefore efficiency. Digitalization, artificial intelligence, and data centers will certainly be among the drivers of the latter.
How does Italy position itself in these respects? How is the energy transition progressing and what outlook does it have?
In recent years, our country has seen significant development in renewables, with increasing investments in photovoltaic, wind, and storage. In 2024, projects worth 121 billion euros and 86.6 GW were identified, with a 60% growth compared to the previous year (source Althesys). However, only a part will be realized, with authorization procedures and NIMBY phenomena still hindering utility-scale projects. In offshore wind, for example, Italy is still at a standstill. The consequence is that much still depends on gas and costs on bills are not decreasing. However, the recent Fer-X Decree auctions have shown great participation and falling prices, albeit with considerable differences between photovoltaic (about 7 GW awarded out of 10 requested) and wind (less than 1 GW out of two submitted).
In basic technologies, such as photovoltaic and batteries, the game for Italy (but also for Europe) has long been lost, with China as the absolute leader. However, Italy has a substantial manufacturing chain, with significant presence in segments such as electrical components, cables, inverters, meters, and services. The aggregate turnover of companies specialized in these markets is 32.1 billion euros with about 86,000 employees.
Stagnant electricity demand with electrification at a standstill, despite repeated growth scenarios, constitutes a brake on the development of renewables, modernization, and decarbonization of the Italian system. The development of heat pumps, electric mobility, and green hydrogen have so far failed to accelerate. Today, data centers represent the new frontier, but uncertainties are still many.
The governance system, the adequacy and timeliness of support policies, and the ability to invest and innovate are therefore crucial for a sustainable transition. The study highlights how delays and regulatory uncertainties are slowing down the process and how, instead, a development scenario could bring substantial benefits to the entire Italian industrial and economic system.